It was eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
