Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
